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  #111  
Old 10-06-2010, 12:41 AM
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Time for RMB appreciation?
China Daily, June 9, 2010

To revalue the yuan or not?

This has been one of the hottest topics for the past decade and it has become an issue not only for Chinese policymakers but other governments around the world. The upcoming G20 summit of leaders from major developed and developing economies and the worsening of the European sovereign debt crisis have complicated the discussion of the yuan's appreciation, with Chinese economists divided on the timing of the process. While some argue that appreciation would do more harm than good, others urge the opportunity be seized to accelerate the process of making the yuan fully convertible.


Pros & Cons
Financial experts debate the pros and cons of calls for China to revalue its currency

* It is not time for yuan appreciation. Although the leaders at the upcoming G20 summit are expected to discuss the issue, it should be up to China to decide.

* Yuan appreciation would benefit China's imports of products from machinery to resources, but the benefit would be limited compared with the damage to the overall economy. China has, for example, suffered from overcapacity in sectors such as iron and steel, and cheaper imports as a result of yuan appreciation would only worsen the situation.

* Yuan appreciation will benefit rich people in China, but it will do little to help improve the livelihoods of the poor. It would only widen the gap, which would contribute to social problems.

* If the yuan appreciates against the dollar, expectations of further gains in the value of the yuan would lead to increased capital inflows, which would bring financial instability and would endanger China's financial security.

* What has largely been ignored by many people is that yuan appreciation would facilitate imports of agricultural products, which would be disastrous for China's more than 500 million farmers. Although the country's entry into the World Trade Organization did not have a major impact on domestic farming, yuan appreciation would have a more adverse effect on the industry, leading to more job losses.

* China must make relevant policies based on its own well-being, not others' directions.

* The sharp decline of the euro against the dollar and other major currencies means that the yuan has effectively appreciated. Many people no longer expect the yuan to resume its appreciation against the dollar, at least not in the next few months. We have also adjusted downward our expectations of yuan appreciation against the dollar, to about 3 to 4 percent this year. Moreover, if European markets do not calm down in the near future, then concern over a more serious financial contagion could take the yuan move off the table.

* However, as long as the markets calm down and the euro stabilizes, we think China could still start to de-link the yuan from the dollar. The move would most likely be a return to some sort of a basket with a widening trading band against the dollar. Initially we expect the yuan to appreciate against the dollar, but the increased flexibility could allow the exchange rate to move both ways, giving China more room to maneuver in the future.

* A recent news report about China reviewing its euro debt holdings prompted market moves and the Chinese government's assurance of its faith in the euro and European government bonds. We believe that if Asian central banks including China hold on to their euro holdings but reduce their future purchases, the euro would weaken still further.

* When China and the United States clash over yuan appreciation, some analysts have cited the Plaza Accord of 1985 as a warning to China against revaluation.
At that time, Western countries joined together to force Japan to raise the value of the yen and finally caused its domestic economic bubbles to burst. Then Japan fell into recession for over 10 years and is still struggling to recover.
The so-called "lost decade" led many to suspect that the US is readily pushing China on the currency issue to suppress the rise of the nation. China should firmly refuse to revalue the yuan to avoid repeating Japan's tragic mistakes.

However, Takatoshi Ito, a well-known Japanese economist, pointed out that the major reason for the fall of Japan's economy was that the bubbles burst too abruptly; at the beginning of bubble formation, the Japanese government didn't address it properly and in a timely manner, sowing the seeds for an irreversible future disaster.

* A moderate appreciation of the yuan will not harm China's export competitiveness. If we look back to 2005, when the currency rose by more than 20 percent after the country reformed its exchange rate regime, we would see that China's economy has maintained a consistent growth rate, instead of being battered. A huge trade deficit did not form either.

* But will disputes over the trade deficit be solved if the yuan is appreciated? The answer is clearly no. The solution to the problem lies with the implementation of significant and sustained changes in the competitiveness of Chinese products in relation to those of other countries.

* The European sovereign debt crisis has led to a significant rise in the yuan's effective exchange rates against non-dollar currencies, as this passive appreciation soothed pressure on its appreciation. Therefore, the crisis provides an accidental opportunity for reform of the yuan's exchange rate formation system.

* It is no longer the optimal method for China to stick to a yuan peg to the dollar if it wants to reduce exchange rate risks for import or export enterprises and stabilize foreign trade.

* From the macroeconomic point of view, the yuan's peg to the dollar means giving up independent monetary policy, making China's domestic liquidity directly subject to the impact of policies by the US Federal Reserve Board.

* Notably, no matter whether it is pegged to a basket of currencies or a single currency, the yuan is in a position as a secondary currency. And no matter how well a secondary currency could perform, it is just a substitute for other currencies, which means it could only consolidate the international status of others but have little chance of becoming a major international currency.

* If China wants to be a strong currency power, the ultimate goal of its currency system reform should not be pegging the yuan to a basket of currencies, but free floating of the yuan on the market, or the full convertibility of the yuan. Even if a free float of the yuan cannot be realized in the short term, it must be a long-term goal.

The biggest risk of a currency system shift from managed to free float is that the currency's value would be completely uncontrollable, probably fluctuating dramatically and causing an unpredictable impact on the country's economic and financial markets.

Thanks to a rise in the real value of the yuan against non-dollar currencies, its fluctuation would be reduced since it could be closer to real market levels and there would be less impact on the domestic economic and financial markets. In this sense, the European debt crisis has provided the opportunity for China to reform its currency system.



Last 5 Years

- Nearly five years have passed since China adopted a more flexible exchange rate regime in July 2005.

- Since then the yuan has appreciated about 20 percent against the dollar.
Largely due to that, China saw large sums of international capital inflows and abundant liquidity, the "dual surpluses" of international balance of payments, as well as rising foreign exchange reserves.

- Seventy percent of China's $2.5 trillion foreign exchange reserves were generated during the past five years.

- A one percentage point appreciation of the yuan against the dollar will attract about $5 billion in capital inflows per month, according to studies based on data between 2006 and 2009.



Why big one time revaluation is NOT good

- Again, China is facing pressure from the United States and other countries to let the yuan rise, but no one has provided persuasive evidence on the alleged undervaluation of the currency.

- Goldman Sachs' model showed the yuan was undervalued by about 20 percent five years ago but it has approached a reasonable level through previous appreciation.

- However, an exchange rate regime lacking flexibility and solely fixed to the dollar was not in line with the purpose of China's exchange rate regime reform.

- As soon as the external clamor fades away, the reform of Chinese currency is likely to restart and the yuan may move up again in the context of China's economic growth.

- Though Japan suffered a lot from a big surge in the yen in the 1980s, some still call for a one-off appreciation of the yuan. It would be very dangerous if such a view influences policymakers.

- Given the high capital inflows in China, a major exchange rate move of above 10 percent will lead to a large proportion of international capital quickly flowing out to profit from the currency gain.

- The move will cause unusual fluctuations in China's capital and property markets, damaging the health of China's economy.

- Expectations are growing stronger for yuan appreciation and international capital inflows are likely to move faster. The currency rate should remain relatively stable for a period while a small and gradual appreciation is in line with China's industrial and economic situation.
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  #112  
Old 10-06-2010, 12:43 AM
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UPDATE 1-China's exports leap in May -sources
Wed Jun 9, 2010 3:01am EDT

SHANGHAI/BEIJING June 9 (Reuters) - Chinese exports in May grew about 50 percent from a year earlier, sources said on Wednesday, a figure that blew past expectations and fuelled a big jump in domestic stocks.

The key Chinese stock index .SSEC, which had been in negative territory, climbed nearly 3 percent as the strong export growth reassured investors who have been worried that a double-dip in the world economy would weigh on China.

Exports, which are scheduled to be reported as part of broader trade data on Thursday, were expected to rise 32.0 percent year-on-year in May after recording a 30.5 percent pace in April.

The numbers also sparked what looked to be a tentative return of risk appetite in markets more globally.

The Australian dollar reversed the day's losses versus the U.S. dollar, while shares in Hong Kong .HSI also wiped out earlier losses to rise more than 1 percent.

The surprisingly strong exports came alongside figures showing that the domestic economy was performing in line with relatively strong expectations, three sources said.

Chinese consumer prices in May rose 3.1 percent from a year earlier, accelerating from 2.8 percent in April, a senior government official told an internal investor conference on Wednesday, according to the sources present at the meeting.

The official also told the audience that new loans in May reached 630 billion yuan ($92.2 billion), falling from 774 billion yuan in April.

"The official unveiled those figures during the meeting, but they're basically in line with our forecasts," one of the sources said.

Economists polled by Reuters expect annual CPI inflation to reach 3.0 percent in May, new loans to stand at 600 billion yuan and export growth to be around 32 percent.

Consumer inflation and other activity data are due on Friday. Money and lending figures could be published by the central bank at any time.

Chinese economic indicators are often circulated widely in markets and government circles ahead of their official release, and are sometimes subject to last-minute revisions. (Reporting by Beijing and Shanghai Newsrooms; Editing by Kazunori Takada)
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  #113  
Old 10-06-2010, 03:12 PM
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China's home prices rise 12.4% in May
2010-06-10 09:31:10

BEIJING, May 10 (Xinhua) -- Home prices in 70 large and medium-sized Chinese cities rose by 12.4 percent year on year in May, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said in a statement Thursday.

The growth rate was 0.4 percentage points lower than that of April, as property sales in first-tier cities, including, Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen, contracted following a string of government measures to rein in price rises.

Second-hand homes prices posted a year-on-year increase of 9.2 percent in May, but fell 0.4 percent from April, said the NBS in the statement.

New home prices rose 15.1 percent year on year, down 0.3 percentage points from April.

In May, floor space sold stood at 67.77 million square meters, a decrease of 12.74 million square meters from April.

Floor space sold in the first five months climbed 22.5 percent from a year earlier to 302 million square meters. Growth in the first five months was down 10.3 percentage points compared with the January-April period.

In a bid to curb soaring prices, the government has tightened scrutiny of developers' financing, curbed loans for third-home purchase, raised minimum mortgage rates and tightened down-payment requirements for second-home purchases.

As of May 30, New Home sales in Beijing were down 70 percent to 3,357 units from April, according to data released by bjfdc.gov.cn.

Property transactions in Shanghai slumped around 70 percent month-on-month to 2,550 units in May, and Shenzhen's property developers sold a total of 109,200 square meters in May, down 62 percent from April, according to a report in the Shanghai Securities News on June 1.

The NBS data showed property developers borrowed 555 billion yuan (81.26 billion U.S. dollars) from domestic lenders in the first five months, a rise of 43.6 percent from a year earlier.

Nationwide, banks extended 374.4 billion yuan of loans to individual home buyers from January to April, up 88.8 percent year on year.

The nation's property developers invested 398.5 billion yuan in May, bringing the combined five-month investment to 1.39 trillion yuan, up 38.2 percent year on year.
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  #114  
Old 10-06-2010, 03:14 PM
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ECONOMY
JUNE 9, 2010, 3:34 A.M. ET
.Japan Machinery Orders Up

By TAKASHI MOCHIZUKI
TOKYO—Japan's core machinery orders rose at a much faster pace than expected in April as distribution companies looked to buy more trucks, data showed Wednesday, in a sign that domestic business activity may be starting to pick up.

Core orders rose 4% from a month earlier, Cabinet Office data showed. The result, which beat the median forecast for a 1.7% rise in a Dow Jones survey of economists, marked the second straight monthly gain after a 5.4% increase in March. The gain was fueled mainly by a 15.4% rise in orders from the transport industry as firms placed more orders for trucks, according to the government.

The data suggest that a recovery in corporate investment is spreading into wider industry segments, which bodes well for Japan's economic outlook as a whole. Analysts said firms in industries such as steel are beefing up their production capacities to meet increasing overseas orders, and that is having a knock-on effect on domestic demand.

But they said risks such the stronger yen, due to the fallout from Europe's sovereign debt crisis, could yet derail Japan's shaky economic recovery.

More cargo trucks on the road suggests business conditions are improving, which could prompt firms to boost their capital spending, said Norio Miyagawa, an economist at Shinko Research Institute.

The data, which exclude often-volatile orders from electric power companies and for ships, also showed that orders in the information-services industry rose by 16.9% as firms purchased communications equipment for business use, which analysts said is another indication of strengthening business activity.

Machinery orders data are a leading indicator of capital spending, which accounts for about 15% of Japan's gross domestic product.

Analysts expect revised January-March GDP data due out Thursday to show a one percentage point slower pace of growth compared with the 4.9% annualized expansion seen in the preliminary report, as capital spending was likely weaker than expected in the first quarter.

"Revised GDP data may show capital spending was sluggish in the first quarter, but judging from today's machinery orders, we expect the pace of business investment recovery will accelerate in the quarters ahead," said Yoshiki Shinke, a senior economist at Dai-ichi Life Research Institute.

Demand from nonmanufacturers as a whole increased by 5.3%, the data showed.

"Orders from non-manufacturers have been recovering steadily. It's fair to say that machinery orders as a whole are clearly improving," the government official said.

The government raised its assessment of the data for the second straight month, saying "machinery orders are seen picking up." In March, it said orders are "bottoming out."

Orders from manufacturers, meanwhile, fell by 5.5%, while those from overseas decreased by 3.7% in April, the data showed. Demand from the steel and iron industry was particularly weak, as their orders fell by 48.3%.

The declines were likely due to these industries withholding investments for a short time after placing orders aggressively in recent months, analysts said, and they will likely resume stronger business investment as overseas economies continue to recover.

Some analysts said the outlook isn't completely optimistic as debt worries in Europe may push down the euro even further than its recent eight-and-half-year low against the yen.

"The euro's depreciation could weigh on the profitability of exports," said Kyohei Morita, chief Japan economist at Barclays Capital. "We need to monitor the developments surrounding Greece as a risk factor."


WSJ
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  #115  
Old 11-06-2010, 03:02 PM
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How Israel get China to agree on Iran sanction

Israeli officials have said they threatened war against Iran in order to try and convince China to vote in support of economic sanctions at the UN Security Council.

The New York Times broke this story: "In February, a high-level Israeli delegation traveled to Beijing to present alleged evidence of Iran’s atomic ambitions. Then they unveiled the ostensible purpose of their visit: to explain in sobering detail the economic impact to China from an Israeli strike on Iran."

One Israeli official they interviewed said that "the Chinese didn’t seem too surprised by the evidence we showed them, but they really sat up in their chairs when we described what a pre-emptive attack would do to the region and on oil supplies they have come to depend on."

Essentially Israeli officials boast that they tried to threaten China by showing how they could undermine its energy security and damage its economy.

China imports some 15% of its oil from Iran and is reported to have more than US$80 billion invested in that country's energy sector.

Iranian president Mahmud Ahmadinejad will be traveling to China this week, this very day in fact, officially to take part in the Expo 2010 in Shanghai. It is expected that he will meet with Chinese officials to discuss the newly minted sanctions against it.

Meanwhile, no surprises for the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) meeting , it is will not be giving Iran permanent membership just yet.

Last edited by fortune : 11-06-2010 at 03:05 PM.
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  #116  
Old 11-06-2010, 04:01 PM
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No 'hard landing' for China
China Daily, June 11, 2010

China is not at risk of a double slump although it is a possibility in high-income countries, Justin Yifu Lin, chief economist of the World Bank (WB), said on Thursday.

He was speaking in response to speculation that the world's third-largest economy would suffer a hard economic landing.

"The Chinese government will have large fiscal scope even if the worst scenario occurred in European countries, one of the country's largest export markets," Lin said during a video news conference with Asian media representatives after the bank released its Global Economic Prospects 2010.

He said China could adopt positive fiscal policies and attract foreign investment to improve the environment and infrastructure and boost growth if a downturn occurred in external markets.

In the first quarter of this year, the Chinese economy showed unexpectedly strong growth momentum with its gross domestic product (GDP) expanding by a blistering 11.9 percent year-on-year, arousing concerns about rising inflation and potential asset bubbles.

The government and regulators, as a result, have tightened liquidity and dampened the real estate sector to prevent rising prices from evolving into a crisis.

The stringent policies, however, have led to a decrease in economic activity and triggered widespread concern about a downturn, especially in the wake of the eruption of the European debt crisis.

Lin said the government should adjust policies to cope with the new situation, but insisted China was capable of achieving 9.5 percent GDP growth this year.

The bank said in the report that economic growth would slow down to 8.5 percent in 2011 and 8.2 percent in 2012.

It predicted global economic recovery would continue to advance with a GDP growth rate of 2.9 percent and 3.3 percent in 2010 and 2011, but Europe's debt crisis had created new hurdles on the road to sustainable medium term growth.

"The better performance of developing countries in today's world of multi-polar growth is reassuring," said Lin, calling on the high-income countries to seize opportunities offered by stronger growth in developing countries for the rebound to endure.

More than 40 percent of all growth in the global economy next year would come from developing countries, said Andrew Burns, manager of global macroeconomics of the World Bank.

Regardless of how the debt situation in high-income Europe evolves, a second round of financial crisis could not be ruled out in certain emerging countries in Europe and Central Asia, where rising non-performing loans and "significant" levels of short-term debt may threaten banking sector solvency, the bank cautioned.

"Developing countries are not immune to the effects of a high-income sovereign debt crisis," said Burns.

While the European debt crisis has temporarily been put under control, prolonged rising sovereign debt could make credit more expensive and curtail investment and growth in developing countries, he said.

The bank projected high-income countries would grow by between 2.1 and 2.3 percent in 2010, not enough to undo the 3.3 percent contraction in 2009, followed by growth of between 1.9 and 2.4 percent in 2011.

Possible policies that favor more aggressive cuts in deficits among these countries would benefit medium-term growth in both developing and high-income countries by reducing the borrowing costs of high-income countries, said Burns.
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  #117  
Old 12-06-2010, 12:45 AM
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No more cheap labour from China

By Keith B. Richburg
Washington Post Staff Writer
Friday, June 11, 2010; 8:54 AM

BEIJING -- A series of labor strikes continued to spread Friday across parts of China, as newly emboldened workers pressed for higher wages and better conditions, posing a fresh challenge to the government and the country's only officially sanctioned union.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...l?hpid=topnews
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  #118  
Old 13-06-2010, 11:59 AM
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MOFCOM: China expects big fall in trade surplus this year
Xinhua, June 12, 2010

China's trade surplus would likely fall noticeably this year as exports outlook would not be optimistic while imports would remain robust, Ministry of Commerce spokesman Yao Jian said at a briefing Saturday.

Exports growth would slow after July, Yao forecast, adding the surge in exports in May was due to a low comparison basis last year. China's exports in May surged 48.5 percent year on year, customs data released Thursday.

China's trade surplus in the first five months fell 59.9 percent to 35.39 billion U.S. dollars. The figure in 2009 topped 196.07 billion U.S. dollars, down 34.2 percent year on year.

Yao attributed the weak export outlook to the European sovereign debt crisis, rising commodity prices and labor costs.

"In the following months, the fallout from the debt crisis in Europe would gradually become apparent, and China would closely watch changes in its important exports markets including Germany, Spain and Italy," Yao said.

China would maintain stable trade policies amid the crisis, and might adjust some policies in some specific industries for environmental protection purposes.

"Stable trade policies are a top priority when the external outlook is not clear," he said.

Yao also told reporters that attempts by some U.S. lawmakers to include China's exchange rate policy into trade investigations on China's exports of aluminum extrusions and coated paper lacked factual support and did not conform to rules of the World Trade Organization.

The WTO regulated trade policies instead of a country's overall financial or foreign exchange policies, he said.
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  #119  
Old 13-06-2010, 12:00 PM
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June 12, 2010, 2.33 pm
Update: China says euro zone woes will hit its export growth
* China says May export surge won't be sustained
* Beijing keeping a close eye on big EU countries
* Export tax rebates may drop to deter energy-intensive goods


BEIJING - Debt strains in the euro zone will take a toll on Chinese exports in the coming months, the Ministry of Commerce said on Saturday.

Exports surged 48.5 per cent in May from a year earlier, the government reported on Thursday, sending a reassuring signal to markets about the vigour of global demand.

But the ministry said it typically takes Chinese companies two months or so to fulfil orders, so May's shipments reflected orders booked before Europe's debt mess deepened.

The euro zone and the International Monetary Fund had to bail Greece out in April after it was unable to roll over its debts in the bond market, raising fears about the financial health of other big borrowers and triggering a plunge in the euro.

'In the next few months the negative impact from Europe's debt crisis on Chinese exports may gradually show up,' the ministry said in a statement distributed at a monthly news conference.

Yao Jian, a spokesman for the ministry, told the conference that export growth would slow from July onwards.

'In the next two to three months, we will keep a close eye on changes in European markets, especially in Germany, Spain, Italy and Britain, and take some measures,' Mr Yao said. He did not specify what steps China would take and when.

But Mr Yao did say that China might cut export tax rebates for energy-intensive products, thus penalising the manufacture of such goods, in a bid to reach its goals for cleaner growth.

China is racing against the clock to meet its five-year plan to cut energy intensity per unit of GDP by 20 per cent in the years from 2006-2010.

The commerce ministry also said the sovereign debt crisis in the euro zone was one of several uncertainties hanging over the world economy and would limit the pace of the global recovery.

Despite May's export surge, it was hard to be optimistic about full-year prospects, the ministry said.

By contrast, China's brisk recovery would keep sucking in imports at a fast pace. As a result, the country's trade surplus would gradually fall further.

The surplus in 2009 shrank to US$196 billion from US$295 billion in 2008. -- REUTERS
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  #120  
Old 14-06-2010, 05:48 PM
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BEIJING: China's Foreign Ministry on Monday, June 14 hit back at fresh calls by the United States for Beijing to let the yuan currency rise in value, saying the yuan was not to blame for the US trade deficit with China.

Foreign Ministry spokesman Qin Gang was responding to a question about recent comments by US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner and calls from US lawmakers to pass a bill threatening to press China over its yuan exchange rate controls.

"A huge amount of facts has demonstrated the renminbi exchange rate is not the main cause of the imbalance in Sino-US trade," Qin said in a statement on the Ministry's website (www.mfa.gov.cn).

"Do not politicise the renminbi exchange rate issue," he said. The renminbi is another name for the yuan currency. — Reuters
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