IPOH.com.my Photo Gallery BIZ Net My Classifieds Property Maps Car Mart Hotjobs2u.com

Google
Web ipoh.com.my

Hot JobsMy ClassifiedsBidValley AuctionsIpoh DatingAutomobileIT NewsPerak WatchReal Estate
Go Back   Ipoh Community Forums > World Events > Politics
User Name
Password
FAQ Googlemap ME Vb Music Members List Calendar vBRadio Search Today's Posts Mark Forums Read

Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
  #1  
Old 05-01-2009, 07:38 AM
Uncle-Cle's Avatar
Uncle-Cle Uncle-Cle is offline
Moderator
Durian - The King
 
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: Walaiku
Posts: 22,891
Uncle-Cle is an unknown quantity at this point
Send a message via AIM to Uncle-Cle
Default America Disintegrates in 2010

DECEMBER 29, 2008

As if Things Weren't Bad Enough, Russian Professor Predicts End of U.S.

In Moscow, Igor Panarin's Forecasts Are All the Rage; America 'Disintegrates' in 2010


By Andrew Osborn

MOSCOW -- For a decade, Russian academic Igor Panarin has been predicting the U.S. will fall apart in 2010. For most of that time, he admits, few took his argument -- that an economic and moral collapse will trigger a civil war and the eventual breakup of the U.S. -- very seriously. Now he's found an eager audience: Russian state media.

In recent weeks, he's been interviewed as much as twice a day about his predictions. "It's a record," says Prof. Panarin. "But I think the attention is going to grow even stronger."

Prof. Panarin, 50 years old, is not a fringe figure. A former KGB analyst, he is dean of the Russian Foreign Ministry's academy for future diplomats. He is invited to Kremlin receptions, lectures students, publishes books, and appears in the media as an expert on U.S.-Russia relations.

But it's his bleak forecast for the U.S. that is music to the ears of the Kremlin, which in recent years has blamed Washington for everything from instability in the Middle East to the global financial crisis. Mr. Panarin's views also fit neatly with the Kremlin's narrative that Russia is returning to its rightful place on the world stage after the weakness of the 1990s, when many feared that the country would go economically and politically bankrupt and break into separate territories.

A polite and cheerful man with a buzz cut, Mr. Panarin insists he does not dislike Americans. But he warns that the outlook for them is dire.
"There's a 55-45% chance right now that disintegration will occur," he says. "One could rejoice in that process," he adds, poker-faced. "But if we're talking reasonably, it's not the best scenario -- for Russia." Though Russia would become more powerful on the global stage, he says, its economy would suffer because it currently depends heavily on the dollar and on trade with the U.S.
Mr. Panarin posits, in brief, that mass immigration, economic decline, and moral degradation will trigger a civil war next fall and the collapse of the dollar. Around the end of June 2010, or early July, he says, the U.S. will break into six pieces -- with Alaska reverting to Russian control.

In addition to increasing coverage in state media, which are tightly controlled by the Kremlin, Mr. Panarin's ideas are now being widely discussed among local experts. He presented his theory at a recent roundtable discussion at the Foreign Ministry. The country's top international relations school has hosted him as a keynote speaker. During an appearance on the state TV channel Rossiya, the station cut between his comments and TV footage of lines at soup kitchens and crowds of homeless people in the U.S. The professor has also been featured on the Kremlin's English-language propaganda channel, Russia Today.

Mr. Panarin's apocalyptic vision "reflects a very pronounced degree of anti-Americanism in Russia today," says Vladimir Pozner, a prominent TV journalist in Russia. "It's much stronger than it was in the Soviet Union."

Mr. Pozner and other Russian commentators and experts on the U.S. dismiss Mr. Panarin's predictions. "Crazy ideas are not usually discussed by serious people," says Sergei Rogov, director of the government-run Institute for U.S. and Canadian Studies, who thinks Mr. Panarin's theories don't hold water.

Mr. Panarin's résumé includes many years in the Soviet KGB, an experience shared by other top Russian officials. His office, in downtown Moscow, shows his national pride, with pennants on the wall bearing the emblem of the FSB, the KGB's successor agency. It is also full of statuettes of eagles; a double-headed eagle was the symbol of czarist Russia.

The professor says he began his career in the KGB in 1976. In post-Soviet Russia, he got a doctorate in political science, studied U.S. economics, and worked for FAPSI, then the Russian equivalent of the U.S. National Security Agency. He says he did strategy forecasts for then-President Boris Yeltsin, adding that the details are "classified."

In September 1998, he attended a conference in Linz, Austria, devoted to information warfare, the use of data to get an edge over a rival. It was there, in front of 400 fellow delegates, that he first presented his theory about the collapse of the U.S. in 2010.
"When I pushed the button on my computer and the map of the United States disintegrated, hundreds of people cried out in surprise," he remembers. He says most in the audience were skeptical. "They didn't believe me."

At the end of the presentation, he says many delegates asked him to autograph copies of the map showing a dismembered U.S.
He based the forecast on classified data supplied to him by FAPSI analysts, he says. He predicts that economic, financial and demographic trends will provoke a political and social crisis in the U.S. When the going gets tough, he says, wealthier states will withhold funds from the federal government and effectively secede from the union. Social unrest up to and including a civil war will follow. The U.S. will then split along ethnic lines, and foreign powers will move in.

California will form the nucleus of what he calls "The Californian Republic," and will be part of China or under Chinese influence. Texas will be the heart of "The Texas Republic," a cluster of states that will go to Mexico or fall under Mexican influence. Washington, D.C., and New York will be part of an "Atlantic America" that may join the European Union. Canada will grab a group of Northern states Prof. Panarin calls "The Central North American Republic." Hawaii, he suggests, will be a protectorate of Japan or China, and Alaska will be subsumed into Russia.

"It would be reasonable for Russia to lay claim to Alaska; it was part of the Russian Empire for a long time." A framed satellite image of the Bering Strait that separates Alaska from Russia like a thread hangs from his office wall. "It's not there for no reason," he says with a sly grin.

Interest in his forecast revived this fall when he published an article in Izvestia, one of Russia's biggest national dailies. In it, he reiterated his theory, called U.S. foreign debt "a pyramid scheme," and predicted China and Russia would usurp Washington's role as a global financial regulator.

Americans hope President-elect Barack Obama "can work miracles," he wrote. "But when spring comes, it will be clear that there are no miracles."

The article prompted a question about the White House's reaction to Prof. Panarin's forecast at a December news conference. "I'll have to decline to comment," spokeswoman Dana Perino said amid much laughter.
For Prof. Panarin, Ms. Perino's response was significant. "The way the answer was phrased was an indication that my views are being listened to very carefully," he says.

The professor says he's convinced that people are taking his theory more seriously. People like him have forecast similar cataclysms before, he says, and been right. He cites French political scientist Emmanuel Todd. Mr. Todd is famous for having rightly forecast the demise of the Soviet Union -- 15 years beforehand. "When he forecast the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1976, people laughed at him," says Prof. Panarin.
Reply With Quote
Sponsored Links
  #2  
Old 05-01-2009, 08:28 AM
Oldtimer Oldtimer is offline
Simple Minded Fellow
Durian - The King
 
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: CArefree Land
Posts: 12,791
Oldtimer is an unknown quantity at this point
Default

Personally, I will bet my money on the opposite! hahaha...
__________________
Be Happy!!!
Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old 05-01-2009, 09:09 AM
Yugi's Avatar
Yugi Yugi is offline
The makcik!
Durian - The King
 
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: homeless gradually :(
Posts: 4,528
Yugi is an unknown quantity at this point
Default

when Osama is fighting with Russian, the fight gets Russia breaks down in about 10 years. When 911 happened, there is a prediciton of the same. But, in 2010??? He probably has devalued Mr. Obama's presidential together with his elite crew. Time will tell in soon, July is just a few months, 2010 is less than a year from now

Sit back and fasten your seat beat, let's row with the roles... of each of us.
__________________
Reply With Quote
  #4  
Old 06-01-2009, 09:06 PM
kanden kanden is offline
Senior Member
Durian - The King
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Meru
Posts: 3,280
kanden is off the scale
Default

just another attn grabber
__________________
"The one who has conquered himself is a far greater hero than he who has defeated a thousand times a thousand men"

- from the Dhammapada (Sayings of the Buddha)
Reply With Quote
  #5  
Old 06-01-2009, 10:15 PM
rockhard's Avatar
rockhard rockhard is offline
Senior Member
Durian - The King
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Petaling Jaya
Posts: 3,638
rockhard is on a distinguished road
Default

An idiot who has nothing better to do. Ignore him and he'll go away.
__________________
What's that "pop" sound?
Reply With Quote
  #6  
Old 06-01-2009, 10:45 PM
fortune fortune is offline
fortune
Durian - The King
 
Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 11,214
fortune is on a distinguished road
Send a message via Yahoo to fortune
Default

Very few people actually can tell what will happen ahead. Look at the credit crunch n the stock market crash.


But to say US will disintergrate is a bit far fetched.
Reply With Quote
  #7  
Old 07-01-2009, 10:46 AM
K-Fanz's Avatar
K-Fanz K-Fanz is offline
Senior Member
Durian - The King
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: middle of tropics, south of nort pole, north of south pole
Posts: 4,301
K-Fanz is off the scale
Default

to say USSR will crumble during 1980s drew a laugh from other world power back then...to say sun will never set on british flag during height of pax brittanica now sound so hollow.......anything is possible to me...maybe this credit crunch is the catalsyt...who nows...new power will emerge...
__________________
"If a man hasn't discovered something to die for, he isn't fit to live." -- Martin Luther King Jr.
Reply With Quote
  #8  
Old 07-01-2009, 03:02 PM
Oldtimer Oldtimer is offline
Simple Minded Fellow
Durian - The King
 
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: CArefree Land
Posts: 12,791
Oldtimer is an unknown quantity at this point
Default

From what I can see, hear and feel in person, I stand by my original bet.
__________________
Be Happy!!!
Reply With Quote
  #9  
Old 07-01-2009, 03:13 PM
UncleSam UncleSam is offline
Senior Member
Honeydew
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 821
UncleSam is on a distinguished road
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by K-Fanz
to say USSR will crumble during 1980s drew a laugh from other world power back then...to say sun will never set on british flag during height of pax brittanica now sound so hollow.......anything is possible to me...maybe this credit crunch is the catalsyt...who nows...new power will emerge...

Very well said. This crisis will only strengthen China leads and influence power along with HK, Taiwan & Macau working as its tripple turbo engine to accelerate its growth.
Reply With Quote
  #10  
Old 07-01-2009, 03:14 PM
UncleSam UncleSam is offline
Senior Member
Honeydew
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 821
UncleSam is on a distinguished road
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Oldtimer
From what I can see, hear and feel in person, I stand by my original bet.

What is the bet on?
Reply With Quote
Sponsored Links
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

vB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Forum Jump


All times are GMT +8. The time now is 09:21 AM.


Powered by vBulletin Version 3.5.3
Copyright ©2000 - 2019, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
vB Ad Management by =RedTyger=
Copyright Ipoh-Online Sdn. Bhd. (411730-W) 2006